U.S. Relations With the People's Republic of China (2009)

U.S. Department of Defense
Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Public Affairs)

Speech

Air Force Association Convention

As Delivered by Secretary of Defense Robert M. Gates, National Harbor, MD, Wednesday, September 16, 2009

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As you know, the Air Force's modernization program includes accelerating the retirement of more than 230 of its oldest fighters -- just under 13 percent of the total fighter inventory -- leading some to allege a looming "fighter gap." In my view, such a conclusion is based on dated assumptions about requirements and risk -- assumptions that also pervade thinking about some of our land, sea, and amphibious forces as well. The definition of the requirement should be un-tethered from the current force structure and instead be defined by what is needed to defeat potential adversaries in plausible scenarios. What we then find is that the more compelling gap is the deep chasm between the air capabilities of the United States and those of other nations. For example, the United States is projected to have more than 1,000 F-22s and F-35s before China fields its first fully operational fifth-generation fighter -- a gap that will grow well into the 2020s.

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In fact, when considering the military-modernization programs of countries like China, we should be concerned less with their potential ability to challenge the U.S. symmetrically -- fighter to fighter or ship to ship -- and more with their ability to disrupt our freedom of movement and narrow our strategic options. Their investments in cyber and anti-satellite warfare, anti-air and anti-ship weaponry, and ballistic missiles could threaten America's primary way to project power and help allies in the Pacific -- in particular our forward air bases and carrier strike groups. This would degrade the effectiveness of short-range fighters and put more of a premium on being able to strike from over the horizon -- whatever form that capability might take.

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