U.S. Relations With the People's Republic of China (2008)

U.S. Department of State

Asia-Pacific U.S. Military Overview

Admiral Timothy Keating, Commander, U.S. Pacific Command
Foreign Press Center Briefing
Washington, DC
December 18, 2008
10:00 a.m. EST

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Q: Thank you, Admiral. My name is Vincent Chen with the United Daily News, Taiwan.

ADM. KEATING: Good morning.

Q: Good morning. Given the current situation in the Taiwan Strait, does PACOM, or do you still regard Taiwan Strait as one of the flash points in the East Asia and Pacific region? And is there any sign showing that, you know, China has changed or rearranged its posture, military posture, against Taiwan?

ADM. KEATING: Let me take them in reverse order, Vincent.

We watch very carefully the militaries of all of our friends, partners, allies and other countries in our region. We have seen some changes in China's military posture, but I don't think I would characterize them as significant.

That said, we are pleased with the progress being made by China and Taiwan in reducing the tension across the Strait in the issues where we see progress can be in some ways not great strategic shifting of tectonic movement, necessarily -- China sending pandas to Taiwan; increased capability to send mail across the Strait; the improvement in cross-Strait transportation capabilities and access; the sociological changes that are going on where young men and women on various sides are falling in love with one another, and it's increasingly easy to do so.

All of these recommend to us a decrease in tension across the Strait, and we are gratified by that decrease. That said, we still pay close attention to the Strait, as we do many other regions in our area.

Q: Thank you very much, Admiral. My name is Shogo Kawakita with Kyodo News, Japanese Newswire Service.

ADM. KEATING: Good morning.

Q: Good morning. I have two questions, if I may. One is on China-U.S. relations. As we know, the Chinese authorities have notified U.S. authority, [in the] Pentagon, to postpone or cancel the military- to-military exchanges by the end of November. And now we are passing the end of October (sic). And do you have any update on that? And that's first.

And related to this, it's my understanding Ambassador Edelman also told the Chinese authorities to postpone the defense dialogue of this year until the Obama administration would be ready to take stock. And you could also say something about this, some updates on this.

And second question is you once mentioned in New York that deployment of 8,000 troops in Japan to Guam would be delayed beyond scheduled time period. But after your comment, Pentagon official immediately denied your comment. Would you respond to that? Thank you very much.

ADM. KEATING: It is a fact that the Chinese suspended mil-to-mil dialogue with Department of Defense in general and U.S. Pacific Command as the agency perhaps most frequently involved in that dialogue. We are hopeful, cautiously optimistic, that the Chinese will resume all the mil-to-mil dialogue and personnel exchanges and visits that had been suspended, and we have hopes that this suspension will be rescinded in the very near future.

The movement of forces off of Guam -- our administration's policy is clear. The Defense Policy Review Initiative, as agreed to by the United States and Japan, remains in effect. That calls for the movement of 8,000, as you know; 8,000 Marines and a number of dependents and thousands out of Okinawa to Guam. And the policy is still in effect.

My comments were based on the likelihood of the potential -- not likelihood -- the potential for a minor delay. I don't know that that potential is any greater or less today than it was when I made my comments in New York City. But the administration's policy is clear that we will adhere to the Defense Policy Review Initiative.

Q: John Zang with CTI TV, Taiwan.

ADM. KEATING: Hi, John.

Q: Admiral, this question may have been asked; I'm a little bit late. The former vice defense minister of Taiwan, Mr. Lin Chong-pin, said that, given the relaxation of tensions across the Taiwan Strait and given the fact that the three major links have started, the risk of a military conflict across the Taiwan Strait has been reduced to close to zero.

Do you share his optimism? And are you sleeping better now? (Laughter.) Thank you, sir.

ADM. KEATING: Yeah. Thank you, John.

I slept well last night, but I sleep well most every night. (Scattered laughter.) I'm fortunate in that regard. And we talked in my earlier remarks about the peace and stability and prosperity that are prevalent throughout our region. That's not to say we take any of those for granted, and I'm sure the same holds true for Taiwan as it does in China and all of the countries in our area of responsibility. So I sleep well at night because of the great work done by thousands, hundreds of thousands, of men and women all throughout our area of responsibility.

I think it unmistakable that tensions have decreased across the Strait in the last couple of months. That said, I wouldn't put -- you know, I think you characterize it as near zero. I'd rather not put a number against it. I would just say we are grateful for the effort being put forth by the Chinese and the Taiwans to continue dialogue in seeking some sort of resolution to the cross-Strait challenge. And we're grateful for those efforts.

Q: Jay Park with Radio Free Asia.

ADM. KEATING: Good morning.

Q: Admiral, thank you for your decades of service for the regional security.

ADM. KEATING: Thank you. It's a privilege.

Q: Can you tell us Pacific Command's estimation of the North Korean leader Kim Jong-il's health, the current condition? And concerning that, can you tell us about current status of contingency plan discussion among U.S. and other allies? Especially did you start discussion on contingency plan with China about this issue yet?

ADM. KEATING: It's our opinion that Kim Jong-il is alive. As to the particular details attendant to his medical condition, I don't know any more than you in the media provide us. I think he's alive. I think he's relatively in control of his faculties. I'm hardly a doctor and I wouldn't know how to characterize it medically. He's alive, and he remains in control of the North Korean government.

I can't comment on the status of operational plans anywhere in the theater other than to say they exist. We exercise them frequently, and we continue to report on our readiness to execute those plans to the Secretary of Defense and the President frequently.

Q: Good morning, Admiral. Daphne Benoit with Agence France Presse (AFP). I have two questions.

ADM. KEATING: Bonjour.

Q: Bonjour. I have two questions for you. First of all, what's your view on China being ready to send some ships off the coast of Somalia? Is it a positive development -- do you see this as a positive development? And second question: Over the few last years, the counter-piracy efforts in the Strait of Malacca seem to have results. Can we -- is there anything to be learned from what has been applied in this region that could help in Somalia?

ADM. KEATING: Thank you, Daphne. I think those are two great questions.

The first, we are in dialogue with various agencies and commands in an attempt to provide information to the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN), should their country decide to deploy ships to the Central Command area of responsibility. That is, of course, outside our AOR. But we're also talking to our good friends in the Central Command AOR. I'll meet with General Petraeus within a couple of days -- shorter than that, actually -- to discuss this, amongst other issues.

So we are working with the Chinese to ensure they are aware of the lines of communication that are available to them and to avail them of certain parts of information that we have from our friends in Central Command, should they desire to send ships to the piracy -- the area of piracy most prevalent, which is, of course, the Gulf of Aden and off the coast of Somalia. I hope the Chinese do, and we'll work closely with them. And I think this augurs well for increased cooperation and collaboration between the Chinese military forces and U.S. Pacific Command forces.

To go back to one of our first questions, I think this could be a springboard for resumption of dialogue between PLA forces and U.S. Pacific Command forces in particular. So I'm cautiously optimistic and hopeful.

You cite a very good example for the power of increased cooperation and collaboration between right-minded countries who want to decrease piracy, whether it is a criminal or terrorist nature in basis. Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia and now Thailand are cooperating across a wider spectrum of operations, and the efficacy of their results is dramatic. Incidents of piracy of two or three years ago were numbered in the several dozens, three or four dozen per year. Those are down in this past year to seven incidents of piracy in the Strait of Malacca.

So by sharing information, by cooperating on an operational basis, by training extensively with each other, not just with the United States but on a bilateral-multilateral basis, those countries are decreasing incidents of piracy across the Strait of Malacca. And we think those lessons learned are, some of them, transferable to the Gulf of Aden. And we're sharing those lessons with our friends at Central Command.

Yes, ma'am.

Q: Just to follow up on that, isn't the situation quite different --

ADM. KEATING: Yes.

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Q: Hi Admiral, Nadia Chow with The Liberty Times.

ADM. KEATING: Good morning.

Q: Yeah, good morning.

We heard -- actually, it's not a rumor anymore, that China is building a carrier. And we see some, actually, solid progress. We heard their generals or admirals have commented on it.

I don't know if PACOM is monitoring the latest developments and have an assessment, you know, what the impact would be. Thanks.

ADM. KEATING: This is a topic that gets a modest amount of conversation. When I meet with our good friends in the media, the People's Republic of China's plans to develop an aircraft carrier in particular, and that capability writ large.

I go back to a conversation I had on my first visit to China over a year ago when a Chinese admiral said to me, when we build our carrier, how about we make a deal: You stay east of Hawaii, we'll stay west of Hawaii and we can save you the time and the expense of coming all the way to the western Pacific. You tell us what happens where you are, we'll tell you what happens where we are and everything will be hunky-dory. I declined his offer.

I don't know how serious he was in terms of expressing a division of the Pacific. I do believe the Chinese are serious in considering development of aircraft carrier capabilities. As I told our Chinese host that morning, it's not as easy as it looks. We've been at this for decades and decades. I have a little bit of experience flying on and off carriers and employing carrier battle tactics. It's complex, it's complicated, it's an intensely demanding regime and it's a dangerous regime and it's a very expensive undertaking.

If the Chinese choose to pursue aircraft carrier technology, we will -- as we are now -- monitor very carefully that development. We would ask that they be increasingly transparent with us -- more transparent with us -- so we can understand their intention.

When I proposed to the Chinese an increased statement of intention, they come back and say, well, we only want to protect those things that are ours, which is fair enough. So too do we, so too do all of the countries who have access to the maritime domain.

I followed with saying there's lots of room in the Pacific, there's lots of room in the Indian Ocean. We want to work with you to enhance maritime security. Your development of aircraft carriers, done in a certain way, could be seen as a threat by some. I don't regard it as a threat today. We are going to watch very carefully to make sure that it doesn't become a threat.

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